92 percent in richer parts of the country). Brazil is among the LCR countries that suffered the longest spell of public schools’ closures to date, which is expected to raise learning poverty from 48 to 70 percent and to disproportionately affect the poor (remote learning benefited less than 50 percent of students in less developed regions, vs. The COVID-19 pandemic is jeopardizing years of progress in poverty reduction and human capital accumulation.
It has brought uncertainties to the macroeconomic policy framework, especially in the fiscal area, which translate into downside risks, thus calling for strong fiscal consolidation and the adoption of structural reforms, as soon as the spread of the disease is controlled. The pandemic, and the related restrictions in economic activity resulted in a sharp decline of external and domestic demand while also constraining supply. Vaccination efforts have accelerated recently, with almost 70% of the population having received its first dose by end of September 2021, though still just 40% are fully vaccinated. The newest and more contagious Delta variant is already spreading in the country, which raises concerns about a possible new wave of infections like the one experienced in March-May 2021, when 20 out of 27 states faced over 90% of ICU bed occupancy rate and acute shortages of critical supplies such as oxygen and sedatives. While deaths and cases are now well below the peak registered in April 2021, Brazil still accounts for 16 percent of all recorded COVID-19 related deaths worldwide since the peak of March 2021. By end-September 2021, Brazil has reached more than 590,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths, and more than 21 million cases (third worldwide, behind US and India).
However, the path to a full recovery in the medium-term remains steep given Brazil’s preexisting structural and fiscal vulnerabilities and the impact of inflationary pressures on the economy.īrazil has become the second country in the world in terms of absolute deaths due to COVID-19 (only behind US), and eight in terms of per capita deaths. Rising vaccination rates also contribute to the expected improvements in growth rate. An emerging recovery in demand, both domestic and external, and a pick-up in commodity prices are expected to push GDP growth to 5.3 percent in 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed Brazil to an unprecedented health, social and economic challenge, leading to a 4.1 percent GDP decline in 2020, followed by a rebound in 2021.
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